Stripe has been an IPO candidate longer than most current employees have worked there. The 2021 round at $95B was followed by a down round in 2023 to $70B, then a quiet recovery through secondary markets in 2024.
Where it trades today
April 2025 secondary trades on Forge are clearing around $95/share, implying an $87B valuation. Hiive bids and tender activity in the same range. That's already 24% above the 2023 primary — secondary investors are betting on appreciation, either from continued growth or a near-term liquidity event.
What IPO scenarios look like for employees
Stripe processes payments at scale. Estimates from Sacra and The Information peg 2024 net revenue at $5–6B, growing 25%+. Public payment peers (Adyen, Block) trade at 5–22× EV/Revenue depending on growth and margins.
Three rough IPO scenarios:
- Conservative ($100B): only 5% above current secondary. Modest upside but liquidity unlocked.
- Base case ($150B): 2x current secondary, 8–9× revenue. In line with high-quality fintech peers.
- Bull case ($250B+): would require Stripe to be re-rated as a software/infrastructure company rather than a payment processor.
Translating to employee dollars
Take a mid-tenure employee: 8,000 vested options at $55 average strike, joined in 2022. Today's secondary value: about $760K gross / $320K net of strike. At a $150B IPO, that becomes $1.3M net of strike, before tax.
The thing most current Stripe employees underweight: even if the IPO never happens, the secondary market is functional. You can already realise meaningful value through Forge or Hiive — typically at a 10–15% discount to the headline price.