Hiive disclosed in April that Q1 2025 secondary transaction volume was up 110% YoY. Forge's secondary index doubled. This is a structural change in private markets — and it has implications for how you should think about your own equity.
Why it matters
Liquidity changes valuation. The traditional 'private illiquidity discount' (the haircut for not being able to sell) was 20–35%. With deeper secondary markets, that discount is shrinking — for top unicorns, to 10–15%. Your grant is worth more on paper than it would have been three years ago, all else equal.
The pushback
Higher volume means more company involvement. ROFR exercises are up — companies are more frequently buying back shares from would-be sellers, sometimes at the listed price, sometimes blocking the transaction entirely. Read your stock plan before listing.
If your company has been quiet on secondary sales in the past 12 months, expect that to change. Either tender offers will start, or ROFR enforcement will intensify. Both are signs of an active management team paying attention to the cap table.