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SpaceX
Falcon, Starship and Starlink. The most mature private-company secondary market in the world — semi-annual employee tenders set widely-followed benchmark prices. Starlink consumer revenue is now the largest contributor.
Reviewed May 10, 2026 (6d ago)
Current estimate
4 methods · May 10, 2026Medium confidence (40%)
$505.5B
range $429.7B – $581.3B⚠ methods disagree (6.0× spread)
Implied per-share: $252.7 · vs last primary +1%
Last primary round
$500B
Employee Tender · 3mo ago
Secondary signal
$500.0B
Tender · 2026-02+0%
Headcount
16,000
employees · LinkedIn+19%
Revenue (est.)
$14.0B
annual run rate
Complete company data
Every input we use, where we got it from, and how much we trust it.
| Field | Value | Confidence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company fundamentals | |||
| Sector | Space | high | |
| Headquarters | 🇺🇸 United States | high | |
| Founded | 2002 | high | |
| Website | spacex.com | high | |
| Latest primary round | |||
| Post-money valuation | $500B | high | |
| Round name | Employee Tender | high | |
| Date | 2026-02-20 (3 months ago) | high | |
| Lead investor | Internal | high | |
| Amount raised | Not disclosed | medium | |
| Capitalization | |||
| Total fully-diluted shares | 2,000M | low | |
| Implied share price (latest primary) | $253 | medium | |
| Primary equity type granted | ISO/NSO | high | |
| Financials | |||
| Annual revenue (est.) | $14,000M | medium | |
| EV / Revenue (implied) | 35.7x | medium | |
| Headcount | |||
| Employees (now) | 16,000 | medium | |
| Employees (12 months ago) | 13,500 | medium | |
| 12-month headcount growth | +19% | medium | |
| Methodology inputs | |||
| Sector ETF proxy | UFO | medium | |
| ETF annual return (trailing 3-yr) | 14% | medium | |
Funding history
Primary rounds reported in Bloomberg, WSJ, TechCrunch, Reuters, or SEC Form D filings (efts.sec.gov). Linked per round below.
Employee Tender2026-02-20
$500.0BLed by Internal
Source: Bloomberg Feb 2026
Employee Tender2025-07-01
$410.0BLed by Internal
Source: WSJ Jul 2025
Employee Tender2025-01-15
$350.0BLed by Internal
Source: Bloomberg Jan 2025
Employee Tender2024-06-01
$210.0BLed by Internal
Source: WSJ
Employee Tender2023-06-01
$150.0BLed by Internal
Source: Reuters
Secondary market signals
Secondary market signals: bid/ask/trade indications from Hiive (hiive.com), Forge Global, Caplight Index, and tender prices reported in the press.
| Date | Type | Source | Price / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | tender | Tender | $250 |
| 2025-11-10 | trade | Forge | $235 |
| 2025-07-01 | tender | Tender | $205 |
View live indications: Hiive ↗ · SEC Form D filings ↗
Public peer comparables
Public peer comparables: editorial selection of public companies with the closest business model. EV/Revenue and growth from public 10-Q filings and Bloomberg, refreshed quarterly.
| Ticker | Company | EV / Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| RKLB | Rocket Lab | 9x |
| IRDM | Iridium | 3.5x |
| RTX | RTX | 2.2x |
| LMT | Lockheed | 1.6x |
Typical strike prices by cohort
Strike ranges by cohort: aggregated from Glassdoor, Teamblind threads, Carta's published industry data and reports from employees. Indicative only — your actual 409A at grant time is the only authoritative number.
2021 cohort
$28–$45
per share
2022 cohort
$55–$75
per share
2023 cohort
$77–$95
per share
2024 cohort
$110–$135
per share
2025 cohort
$175–$215
per share
Confidence breakdown
How much we trust each of the four valuation methods for this specific company, and why.
Method A — Peer-multiple
weight 35%→ $89.9B23% confidence
↳ Effectively excluded from the blend — this method is structurally unreliable for this company.
Growth-weighted peer EV/Revenue: 7.1x → 10% private-company discount → 6.4x on $14000M revenue. Output implies less than half the recent market anchor ($500B) — this company is likely valued on optionality / non-revenue factors and Method A is structurally less reliable here.
Method B — Secondary-implied
weight 25%→ $477.4B55% confidence
Recency-weighted average of 3 secondary indications (180-day decay)
Method C — Primary time-decay
weight 30%→ $543.5B80% confidence
$500B round (2026-02-20) × 1.10× growth × 0.99× multiple decay over 0.2 years
Method D — Sector momentum
weight 10%→ $515.6B56% confidence
$500B × (1 + 14% p.j.)^0.2yr = $515.6B via UFO ETF-proxy
Overall confidence
40%
Weighted average of the four methods. Above 65% is high, 40–65% medium, below 40% low.
Worked example for an employee
A concrete walk-through using a hypothetical employee profile. Same engine the calculator uses — try it with your real numbers.
Profile: a hypothetical employee who joined SpaceX 24 months ago (2024-05-16) with 2,000 options at a strike price of $123/share, on the standard 4-year vesting schedule with a 1-year cliff.
Vesting
1,000 of 2,000
50% vested at month 24
Implied share price (mid)
$253
weighted average of 4 methods
Gross vested value
$252,750
vested shares × implied price
Exercise cost
$122,500
1,000 × $123 strike
Net of exercise
$130,250
gross − exercise cost
Tax (rough)
$24,302
US federal only · AMT risk: medium
What if the next round is…
Up round +30%
$163,217
New round at +30% valuation, 15% new shares issued
Down round −30%
$24,937
New round at −30% valuation, 20% new shares (higher dilution in distress)
Secondary today
$92,337
Sale on the secondary market at the typical 15% discount to the mid estimate
These numbers come from the same engine as the live calculator. Walk through with your own grant: use your real numbers →
Transparent assumptions
What we assumed where exact data isn't available. If any of these don't match your situation, the numbers above will be off.
Fully-diluted share count
2000M shares
We don't have authoritative cap-table access for private companies. The number above is reconstructed from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market price-vs-valuation math, and leaked share-class summaries. Actual fully-diluted count (including unvested option pool and SAFEs) may differ by 5–15%.
Common-stock waterfall
1.0× to common
We assume a clean common-stock outcome — i.e. preferred-share liquidation preferences and ratchets do not extract value before common. In a down-exit, this assumption can be very wrong: preferred stack can take 30–70% of proceeds.
Private-company illiquidity discount
10% off public peers
Applied to Method A (peer-multiple). Per-company because category leaders with deep secondary markets and a clear IPO path warrant a smaller discount than early-stage names. The literature range is 10–35%; for SpaceX we use 10% based on secondary-market depth, valuation history, and proximity to liquidity.
Revenue growth assumption (Method C)
50% YoY
Compounded forward from the last primary date to today to estimate the company's value drift. Set per-company based on disclosed or reported ARR trajectory. Method C is further capped at 1.3× the most recent secondary trade (if any) to stop runaway extrapolation when revenue growth outpaces what the market is actually paying.
Sector ETF momentum (Method D)
UFO @ 14%/year
Method D applies the trailing return of UFO as a market-proxy adjustment to the primary valuation. Crude — meant as a tiebreaker when peer and secondary data conflict, not as a primary signal.
Outlier auto-downweight
Methods >50% from median get ½ weight
Robust-statistics safety net: any method whose output strays more than 50% from the median of the other three methods has its confidence weight halved when computing the blended mid-point. Prevents a single bad extrapolation from dragging the headline.
Recency decay for secondary trades
180-day half-life (e⁻ᵈ/¹⁸⁰)
A trade from 30 days ago counts ~5× more than one from 180 days ago. Tunable; some platforms use shorter half-lives.
Tax estimate
US federal only, single filer
Uses 2024 US federal brackets, ignoring state tax, NIIT, AMT credit recovery, and any other deductions. Treat as a directional sanity check, not a tax bill.
All data from public sources. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not affiliated with SpaceX. Last refreshed manually — see methodology for our update cadence.