Primary round source URL not yet verified. This estimate is based on reported round data pending direct source confirmation.
$23.6B
range $16.0B – $31.2B
Implied per-share: $561.1 · vs last primary -3%
No verified public secondary-market signal available for Mistral AI. The estimate relies on last confirmed financing, peer multiples, sector momentum, and time decay.
Derived/estimated — SEC Form D filings, secondary price math, cap-table summaries[estimated — not authoritative]› notes
Public total fully-diluted share count: estimated from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market pricing math (implied valuation ÷ price per share), and leaked cap-table summaries. Considered the lowest-confidence input.
low
Implied share price (4-method estimate)
$561
$23.6B anchor × 1000 ÷ 42.068966M shares[derived]
medium
Primary equity type granted
ISO/NSO
Public reports of company equity practices
high
Financials
Annual revenue (est.)
$400M
Estimated — best available public estimates (Sacra, The Information, company ARR disclosures, press reports)[estimated — not independently verified]› notes
Annual revenue: best public estimates from Sacra, The Information, WSJ leaks, or company-stated ARR. Where official, we cite the source on the funding round.
medium
EV / Revenue (implied)
61.0x
Computed from valuation ÷ revenue[derived]
medium
Headcount
Employees (now)
500
LinkedIn — current company page count› notes
Headcount: LinkedIn 'Company' page employee count, taken now and approximately 12 months ago via the Wayback Machine. Treat as a directional proxy for revenue growth, not a hard number.
medium
Employees (12 months ago)
280
LinkedIn company page — historical snapshot via Wayback Machine[estimated — ±15% directional proxy]
medium
12-month headcount growth
+79%
Computed[derived]
medium
Methodology inputs
Sector ETF proxy
BOTZ
Editorial choice — most representative public ETF› notes
Sector ETF: editorial choice of the most representative public-market proxy. Annual return: 3-year trailing average from Yahoo Finance, refreshed quarterly.
medium
ETF annual return (trailing 3-yr)
12%
Yahoo Finance · refreshed quarterly
medium
Funding history
Primary rounds reported in Bloomberg, WSJ, TechCrunch, Reuters, or SEC Form D filings (efts.sec.gov). Linked per round below.
Valuation progression (equity rounds)
Valuation progression · equity rounds
$13.7Blatest · Series C
Total growth
7×
Our estimate
$23.6B
Primary round
Down round
Our estimate
Debt financingDEBT · does not set equity valuation2026-03-30
$830M raised
Lenders: Consortium of 7 banks
Source: TechCrunch Mar 2026(historical ref.)
Series C+121%2025-09-09
$13.7B
Led by ASML / a16z / Nvidia · raised $1.9B
Source: EU-Startups Sep 2025(source URL pending)
Series B+210%2024-06-11
$6.2B
Led by General Catalyst · raised $640M
Source: TechCrunch(historical ref.)
Series A2023-12-11
$2.0B
Led by Andreessen · raised $415M
Source: Bloomberg(historical ref.)
Secondary market signals
Secondary market signals: bid/ask/trade indications from Hiive (hiive.com), Forge Global, Caplight Index, and tender prices reported in the press.
No active listings found
We monitor Hiive, Forge Global, and EquityZen for Mistral AI listings. As of October 2026, no verified secondary market activity has been recorded.
Secondary listings for private companies appear without announcement and typically close within days. When a listing appears, it often signals an upcoming tender offer or funding round.
Primary round history as valuation signal
In the absence of secondary market data, the funding history below is the primary valuation anchor. Method C (time-decay) uses this data to estimate current value.
Debt financing · 2026-03$13.7B
Series C · 2025-09$13.7B
Series B · 2024-06$6.2B
Get notified when a listing appears
Pro subscribers get notified within 2 hours when a secondary listing for Mistral AI is detected. Most employees first hear about tender offers days after the market already knows.
Public peer comparables: editorial selection of public companies with the closest business model. EV/Revenue and growth from public 10-Q filings and Bloomberg, refreshed quarterly.
Ticker
Company
EV / Revenue
Revenue growth
As of
CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
45.09x
+26%
2026-09-19
MDB
MongoDB, Inc.
11.1x
+31%
2026-09-19
NET
Cloudflare, Inc.
45.86x
+36%
2026-09-19
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
17.72x
+106%
2026-09-19
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
69.34x
+93%
2026-09-19
Typical strike prices by cohort
Strike ranges by cohort: aggregated from Glassdoor, Teamblind threads, Carta's published industry data and reports from employees. Indicative only — your actual 409A at grant time is the only authoritative number.
2023 cohort
$1–$3
per share
2024 cohort
$10–$20
per share
2025 cohort
$35–$55
per share
Confidence breakdown
How much we trust each of the four valuation methods for this specific company, and why.
Weighted average of the four methods. Above 60% is high, 35–60% medium, below 35% low.
Medium
Worked example for an employee
Illustrative mechanics only — this shows how the equity model works, not a reliable value estimate.
Illustrative mechanics only
This example shows equity mechanics only. It is not a reliable estimate of current value because the primary round source URL is not yet verified — treat all figures as illustrative until source confirmation.
Show illustrative values (not a reliable estimate) ▸
Profile: a hypothetical employee who joined Mistral AI 24 months ago (2024-10-01) with 2,000 options at a strike price of $15/share, on the standard 4-year vesting schedule with a 1-year cliff.
Vesting
1,000 of 2,000
50% vested at month 24
Implied share price (mid)
$561
weighted average of 4 methods — low confidence
Gross vested value
$561,060
vested shares × implied price
Exercise cost
$15,000
1,000 × $15 strike
Net of exercise
$546,060
gross − exercise cost
Tax (rough)
$161,496
US federal only · AMT risk: high
What if the next round is…
Up round +30%
$619,242
New round at +30% valuation, 15% new shares issued
Down round −30%
$312,285
New round at −30% valuation, 20% new shares (higher dilution in distress)
Secondary today
$461,901
Sale on the secondary market at the typical 15% discount to the mid estimate
These illustrative values use the same engine as the live calculator. Source confirmation is pending — values are not reliable current estimates for Mistral AI. Try the calculator →
Transparent assumptions
What we assumed where exact data isn't available. If any of these don't match your situation, the numbers above will be off.
Fully-diluted share count
42.068966M shares
We don't have authoritative cap-table access for private companies. The number above is reconstructed from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market price-vs-valuation math, and leaked share-class summaries. Actual fully-diluted count (including unvested option pool and SAFEs) may differ by 5–15%.
Common-stock waterfall
1.0× to common
We assume a clean common-stock outcome — i.e. preferred-share liquidation preferences and ratchets do not extract value before common. In a down-exit, this assumption can be very wrong: preferred stack can take 30–70% of proceeds.
Private-company illiquidity discount
22% off public peers
Applied to Method A (peer-multiple). Per-company because category leaders with deep secondary markets and a clear IPO path warrant a smaller discount than early-stage names. The literature range is 10–35%; for Mistral AI we use 22% based on secondary-market depth, valuation history, and proximity to liquidity.
Revenue growth assumption (Method C)
1500% YoY
Compounded forward from the last primary date to today to estimate the company's value drift. Set per-company based on disclosed or reported ARR trajectory. Method C is further capped at 1.3× the most recent secondary trade (if any) to stop runaway extrapolation when revenue growth outpaces what the market is actually paying.
Sector ETF momentum (Method D)
BOTZ @ 12%/year
Method D applies the trailing return of BOTZ as a market-proxy adjustment to the primary valuation. Crude — meant as a tiebreaker when peer and secondary data conflict, not as a primary signal.
Outlier auto-downweight
Methods >50% from median get ½ weight
Robust-statistics safety net: any method whose output strays more than 50% from the median of the other three methods has its confidence weight halved when computing the blended mid-point. Prevents a single bad extrapolation from dragging the headline.
Recency decay for secondary trades
180-day half-life (e⁻ᵈ/¹⁸⁰)
A trade from 30 days ago counts ~5× more than one from 180 days ago. Tunable; some platforms use shorter half-lives.
Tax estimate
US federal only, single filer
Uses 2024 US federal brackets, ignoring state tax, NIIT, AMT credit recovery, and any other deductions. Treat as a directional sanity check, not a tax bill.
All data from public sources. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not affiliated with Mistral AI. Last refreshed manually — see methodology for our update cadence.