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Anduril Industries
Defense technology — autonomous systems (Roadrunner, Ghost, Bolt), command software (Lattice), and counter-drone. Strong DoD and allied-nation contracts; valuation re-rated as Ukraine and Pacific deterrence drove sustained defence-procurement growth.
Reviewed May 10, 2026 (6d ago)
Current estimate
4 methods · May 10, 2026High confidence (66%)
$48.0B
range $40.3B – $55.6B
Implied per-share: $106.7 · vs last primary +20%
Last primary round
$40B
Series G · 10mo ago
Secondary signal
$43.0B
Forge · 2026-03+8%
Headcount
4,000
employees · LinkedIn+43%
Revenue (est.)
$1.8B
annual run rate
Complete company data
Every input we use, where we got it from, and how much we trust it.
| Field | Value | Confidence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company fundamentals | |||
| Sector | Defense | high | |
| Headquarters | 🇺🇸 United States | high | |
| Founded | 2017 | high | |
| Website | anduril.com | high | |
| Latest primary round | |||
| Post-money valuation | $40B | high | |
| Round name | Series G | high | |
| Date | 2025-07-30 (10 months ago) | high | |
| Lead investor | Founders Fund | high | |
| Amount raised | $2.5B | medium | |
| Capitalization | |||
| Total fully-diluted shares | 450M | low | |
| Implied share price (latest primary) | $107 | medium | |
| Primary equity type granted | ISO/NSO | high | |
| Financials | |||
| Annual revenue (est.) | $1,800M | medium | |
| EV / Revenue (implied) | 22.2x | medium | |
| Headcount | |||
| Employees (now) | 4,000 | medium | |
| Employees (12 months ago) | 2,800 | medium | |
| 12-month headcount growth | +43% | medium | |
| Methodology inputs | |||
| Sector ETF proxy | ITA | medium | |
| ETF annual return (trailing 3-yr) | 18% | medium | |
Funding history
Primary rounds reported in Bloomberg, WSJ, TechCrunch, Reuters, or SEC Form D filings (efts.sec.gov). Linked per round below.
Series G2025-07-30
$40.0BLed by Founders Fund · raised $2.5B
Source: TechCrunch Jul 2025
Series F2024-08-07
$28.0BLed by Founders Fund · raised $1.5B
Source: Bloomberg
Series E2022-12-08
$8.5BLed by Valor Equity · raised $1.5B
Source: TechCrunch
Series D2021-06-07
$4.6BLed by Andreessen · raised $450M
Source: Reuters
Secondary market signals
Secondary market signals: bid/ask/trade indications from Hiive (hiive.com), Forge Global, Caplight Index, and tender prices reported in the press.
| Date | Type | Source | Price / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | trade | Forge | $96 |
| 2025-12-12 | bid | Hiive | $88 |
| 2025-09-04 | ask | Hiive | $75 |
View live indications: Hiive ↗ · SEC Form D filings ↗
Public peer comparables
Public peer comparables: editorial selection of public companies with the closest business model. EV/Revenue and growth from public 10-Q filings and Bloomberg, refreshed quarterly.
| Ticker | Company | EV / Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | Palantir | 55x |
| KTOS | Kratos | 3x |
| RTX | RTX | 2.2x |
| NOC | Northrop | 1.8x |
Typical strike prices by cohort
Strike ranges by cohort: aggregated from Glassdoor, Teamblind threads, Carta's published industry data and reports from employees. Indicative only — your actual 409A at grant time is the only authoritative number.
2022 cohort
$18–$28
per share
2023 cohort
$32–$45
per share
2024 cohort
$55–$75
per share
2025 cohort
$78–$105
per share
Confidence breakdown
How much we trust each of the four valuation methods for this specific company, and why.
Method A — Peer-multiple
weight 35%→ $46.1B75% confidence
Growth-weighted peer EV/Revenue: 31.2x → 18% private-company discount → 25.6x on $1800M revenue
Method B — Secondary-implied
weight 25%→ $40.5B55% confidence
Recency-weighted average of 3 secondary indications (180-day decay)
Method C — Primary time-decay
weight 30%→ $55.9B69% confidence
$40B round (2025-07-30) × 1.63× growth × 0.96× multiple decay over 0.8 years — capped at 1.3× recent secondary ($43.0B → $55.9B)
Method D — Sector momentum
weight 10%→ $45.6B48% confidence
$40B × (1 + 18% p.j.)^0.8yr = $45.6B via ITA ETF-proxy
Overall confidence
66%
Weighted average of the four methods. Above 65% is high, 40–65% medium, below 40% low.
Worked example for an employee
A concrete walk-through using a hypothetical employee profile. Same engine the calculator uses — try it with your real numbers.
Profile: a hypothetical employee who joined Anduril Industries 24 months ago (2024-05-16) with 2,000 options at a strike price of $65/share, on the standard 4-year vesting schedule with a 1-year cliff.
Vesting
1,000 of 2,000
50% vested at month 24
Implied share price (mid)
$107
weighted average of 4 methods
Gross vested value
$106,653
vested shares × implied price
Exercise cost
$65,000
1,000 × $65 strike
Net of exercise
$41,653
gross − exercise cost
Tax (rough)
$4,766
US federal only · AMT risk: low
What if the next round is…
Up round +30%
$55,564
New round at +30% valuation, 15% new shares issued
Down round −30%
Underwater
Projected share price ($62) sits below strike — exercising would cost more than the shares are worth.
New round at −30% valuation, 20% new shares (higher dilution in distress)
Secondary today
$25,655
Sale on the secondary market at the typical 15% discount to the mid estimate
These numbers come from the same engine as the live calculator. Walk through with your own grant: use your real numbers →
Transparent assumptions
What we assumed where exact data isn't available. If any of these don't match your situation, the numbers above will be off.
Fully-diluted share count
450M shares
We don't have authoritative cap-table access for private companies. The number above is reconstructed from SEC Form D filings, secondary-market price-vs-valuation math, and leaked share-class summaries. Actual fully-diluted count (including unvested option pool and SAFEs) may differ by 5–15%.
Common-stock waterfall
1.0× to common
We assume a clean common-stock outcome — i.e. preferred-share liquidation preferences and ratchets do not extract value before common. In a down-exit, this assumption can be very wrong: preferred stack can take 30–70% of proceeds.
Private-company illiquidity discount
18% off public peers
Applied to Method A (peer-multiple). Per-company because category leaders with deep secondary markets and a clear IPO path warrant a smaller discount than early-stage names. The literature range is 10–35%; for Anduril Industries we use 18% based on secondary-market depth, valuation history, and proximity to liquidity.
Revenue growth assumption (Method C)
85% YoY
Compounded forward from the last primary date to today to estimate the company's value drift. Set per-company based on disclosed or reported ARR trajectory. Method C is further capped at 1.3× the most recent secondary trade (if any) to stop runaway extrapolation when revenue growth outpaces what the market is actually paying.
Sector ETF momentum (Method D)
ITA @ 18%/year
Method D applies the trailing return of ITA as a market-proxy adjustment to the primary valuation. Crude — meant as a tiebreaker when peer and secondary data conflict, not as a primary signal.
Outlier auto-downweight
Methods >50% from median get ½ weight
Robust-statistics safety net: any method whose output strays more than 50% from the median of the other three methods has its confidence weight halved when computing the blended mid-point. Prevents a single bad extrapolation from dragging the headline.
Recency decay for secondary trades
180-day half-life (e⁻ᵈ/¹⁸⁰)
A trade from 30 days ago counts ~5× more than one from 180 days ago. Tunable; some platforms use shorter half-lives.
Tax estimate
US federal only, single filer
Uses 2024 US federal brackets, ignoring state tax, NIIT, AMT credit recovery, and any other deductions. Treat as a directional sanity check, not a tax bill.
All data from public sources. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not affiliated with Anduril Industries. Last refreshed manually — see methodology for our update cadence.